On one dating

The trough marks the end of the declining phase and the start of the rising phase of the business cycle.Economic activity is typically below normal in the early stages of an expansion, and it sometimes remains so well into the expansion.Previously the longest postwar recessions were those of 1973--82, both of which lasted 16 months.In determining that a trough occurred in June 2009, the committee did not conclude that economic conditions since that month have been favorable or that the economy has returned to operating at normal capacity.

The estimates of real GDP and GDI issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U. Department of Commerce are only available quarterly.Real GDP reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009, while the value of real GDI was essentially identical in the second and third quarters of 2009.The average of real GDP and real GDI reached its low point in the second quarter of 2009.Rather, the committee determined only that the recession ended and a recovery began in that month.A recession is a period of falling economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.For these reasons, the committee refers to a variety of monthly indicators to choose the months of peaks and troughs.The committee decided that any future downturn of the economy would be a new recession and not a continuation of the recession that began in December 2007.The basis for this decision was the length and strength of the recovery to date.In particular, in 2001-03, the trough in payroll employment occurred 21 months after the NBER trough date.In 2009, the NBER trough date is 6 months before the trough in payroll employment.

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